DC market rated #1 by Forbes

Finally -- it's not just me. Forbes magazine is letting its readers know that the DC market is on the upswing. Take a look at the link above for the Top 10 as rated by Forbes.com

The Obama Housing Plan

I thought you would like to know this information about how the Stimulus Package will affect housing in our area. Frankly, it will tighten up an already tightening market in Northern Virginia. We have been experiencing low inventory and rising prices for the last 6 months west of the Potomac and see no end in sight. Sales are up more than 25% in Fairfax County (and nearly 100% in Prince William County) compared to a year ago. Nevertheless – the market is hot and the incentives below may create an even hotter sellers market as we move forward in 2009.

• First-time buyers are back in the game (with 0% down financing and payments less than rent);
• There’s now an $8,000 tax credit (with no payment back required!) for first timers;
• Parents are helping kids purchase their first home;
• Investors are picking up properties that create cash flow…

The challenge for many markets across the country where inventory is already starting to shrink and pending sales sour is whether the market will overheat once again.

Meanwhile, below you can see an overview of how the stimulus package will help homeowners stay in their homes

From the Weichert Insights newsletter:

"As you may know, President Obama presented a new plan this week to prevent foreclosures and stabilize the housing market. The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan will be funded with money from the $700 billion financial industry bailout passed by Congress in the fall.

"The plan was designed to help up to 9 million families avoid foreclosure by restructuring or refinancing their mortgages. While it may seem that the main benefactors of the initiative are homeowners at risk of defaulting on their mortgage, we will all benefit. Defaults and foreclosures result in lower home values, lost jobs and economic troubles for local communities.

"The main components of the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan are to:

Provide incentives for mortgage lenders and servicers to modify loans in a way that would reduce monthly mortgage payments to sustainable levels and aid up to 4 million homeowners struggling to make their payments.

Allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance mortgages they own or guarantee, even when more is owed on the home than what it is worth. By removing restrictions on the government-sponsored enterprises, monthly payments could become more affordable for up to 5 million homeowners.

Keep mortgage rates low for all buyers by doubling support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the government last year.

Said National Association of Realtors President Charles McMillan, "The administration's proposed plan, combined with provisions like the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit in the just-enacted American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, will help minimize foreclosures, shrink housing inventory, stabilize home values and move the country closer to an economic recovery."

For a printable version of this message, click here.

What constitutes the "bottom of the market"?

I get this question all the time: have we hit the bottom yet? Market by market, that's what's happening across the country. I've been tracking "hot" markets for RealtyTimes.com (http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/manthonycarr.htm) for the last year and I'm seeing very healthy markets across the country in state after state.

The strongest market in the country is nearly any county in Texas. As far as comeback markets, where ever the foreclosures hit the hardest is where you'll see the biggest come back. Prince William County, Virginia (outside Washington, D.C.), many markets in the state of Florida, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, all are in the middle of a recovery.

Now, recovery doesn't immediately mean increasing prices. So when I refer to a "recovering" market, I'm looking more at pending sales; list to sold price; the level and direction of seller subsidies; and sustainability of the market, such as job growth and the housing inventory.

When inventory begins to drop, with pending sales moving upward - that's the beginning stages of a recovering market. That's what's happening all over Northern Virginia, for instance, in the shadow of the White House. In Fairfax County over the last month, pending sales have jumped above last December's levels by more than 50%; sales are up in the 30% range and inventory has dropped by about 35%. This has been happening for most of the year (2008).

Does the mainline media pick up on it? Of course, not, because they think a recovering market means one thing -- prices. Unfortunately, by the time you put in a contract on a home when prices are moving up - your chance for a great deal have already disappeared. Most likely, you'll pay at or above asking price and must bring your own money to the table without the benefit of seller closing costs to help you keep your own cash for redecorating, fix ups, etc.

I recently competed on a foreclosure property in Springfield, Virginia against four other investors. My buyer won, only because we came in closer to asking price more than anyone else and asked for no closing costs at all. We got a good deal, as the houses are selling for more than $100,000 more than what we pulled in on the property -- of course, it needs fixing up.

So as you look around for that "great deal," look at the underlying numbers that reveal the bottom of the market - not the sales price which tells you nothing more than the fact that the bottom's already hit.

Should You Invest In Foreclosures?

Periodically I hear from readers who want to make $1 million in real estate -- quickly and with no money down. Usually they want to know more about real estate foreclosures -- how to buy them and how to profit from such homes. I've participated in a couple of these deals, and I'm now working on my second million -- I gave up on the first.

Foreclosure properties can be a good place to invest for exponential growth (or loss). There are some deals out there for little or no money down, but potential investors should take precautions because foreclosed properties can involve significant risks.

There are various ways to invest in foreclosure properties. The first and probably most popular is to purchase a property, fix it up and then rent it out, hopefully creating a positive monthly cash flow. The investor then becomes a landlord, with all the responsibility of an investment property owner.

The second way to invest is to seek out foreclosures or "handyman" specials, buy them, invest more money to fix them up and then sell them, taking -- hopefully -- a profit once the house is sold.

A third approach is to purchase a foreclosure that is underpriced and selling it immediately at a higher value.

One way to sell homes for a higher value is to take back a mortgage. For example, let's say a house worth $100,000 is sold at a foreclosure to an investor for $50,000. The investor may put down 10 percent and assume or create a new mortgage for $45,000. The investor then advertises the property at a discount, say $80,000, offering 100-percent seller financing (remember, we're figuring that like houses are worth $100,000).

The owner hopes to create a sense of urgency by underpricing the house and pulling in buyers.
If successful, the investor takes a promissory note from the new purchaser for $80,000. He has now created a $35,000 note for himself (The difference between the $80,000 sale price and the original $45,000 mortgage). The new buyer makes payments to the investor for an $80,000 loan and the investor makes payments on the original loan for $45,000. In real numbers, here's what it would look like.

If the original loan is for $45,000 at 8 percent over 30 years, the principal and interest is $366.88. When the second buyer takes a note for $80,000, the investor may charge a bit higher interest since he's offering 100 percent financing.

Let's say he offers an $80,000 loan, 9.5 percent over 30 years. The monthly payment is $672.68, creating a positive cash flow of about $306 per month.

If the borrower stays in the house for 30 years, the investor will make $88,295 in interest and $30,000 in capital gains after he's paid his own interest on the first note for a total return of $118,295. Not a bad return on a $5,000 downpayment.

Keep in mind that not all mortgages allow an owner to "wrap" a second mortgage onto original loan. Most loans today contain a "due-on-sale" clause, meaning if the property is sold, the first trust must be paid off immediately. Wraparound financing is popular when investors purchase foreclosed Veterans Affairs (VA) properties as the VA allows wrap-around loans in such cases.
Before you go out, checkbook in hand and ready to bid away, take some advice first.
If you're deciding to invest in foreclosure properties with a spouse or with other investors, be sure that everyone understands this form of investing. You are about to enter a world of high finance, property management, calls in the night from tenants and other risks that regular homeowners never experience.

Second, get educated. Reading this column does not constitute preparing the first-time investor to start bidding on properties. There are plenty of real estate agents and auctioneers who do this on a daily basis and would be happy to educate you in the world of foreclosure properties. Also, visit the bookstore for guides by reputable authors who know investment intricacies.

• Third, be realistic.
• Not all foreclosures are good deals.
• Not all foreclosed properties are available at discount.
• If you take back a loan your buyer could default.
• Most loans today prohibit wraparound financing.
• Repairs might be far more than you expect.
• Not all tenants pay their rent on time -- or at all.
• Some renters damage property.
• Changing interest rates could impact your bottom line.
• It may not be possible to re-sell the property without extensive -- and costly -- repairs.
• Not every deal yields a profit.
• If you have a profit you may face taxes.
• If you only look at foreclosures you may miss other investment opportunities.

The list of potential downers goes on...and on and on.... Think of it this way: If making money with foreclosures was both easy and a sure bet every time, no one would bother with IPOs -- or jobs.

Fourth, get professional help from brokers, lenders, attorneys, accountants, home inspectors, and others.

Prices, Interest Rates Make Up 20/20 Real Estate Vision

by M. Anthony Carr

Many real estate prognosticators have been worrying about the slowing of the appreciation rates across real estate markets nationwide, scaring many buyers out of the market. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversite released its 2nd quarter figures on average housing prices this month and many market watchers jumped on the "dropping prices" bandwagon.

The astute buyer, however, watches the prices and the interest rates adjustments together and then makes an offer at the optimal time to get the best house for the best price and terms.

Headlined "House Price Appreciation Slows," the OFHEO report showed that prices nationally are not dropping, rather the rate of growth has slowed. On average, the houses in the 2nd quarter were 10 percent more valuable over the same period last year. So consumers and economists have on their worry hats about the future. Understandably, none of us like to see an investment stop growing; however, for the buyers, this slow in appreciation is good news.

I've always held on to the belief that there's not a lot you can do about the future, so you have to live and make decisions based on the facts you have today. The reality about real estate, is that sometimes you have to buy when your life situation dictates it, not when the "price is right." However, for buyers who have been on the sidelines, the time may be right to hit the iron of making an offer, so to speak.

Have you been watching the interest rates lately? Bankrate.com has its average 30-year fixed rate at 6.4 percent -- a drop of 3 basis points in one week and the lowest level all year. In addition, for those willing to pay more points, you could get a rate under the 6 percent threshold. Meanwhile, if the prices in your area are about to flatten before beginning their next cycle upward, and you MUST buy now, your waiting may have paid off -- if you jump over the fence of indecision and get a contract written now.

Earlier this year, rates were standing at 6.8 percent. The drop of 4 basis points since then could save a shopper hundreds or thousands of dollars per year on a home mortgage, depending on the loan amount.
At 6.4 percent, the principal/interest payment on each $100,000 borrowed is $625.51 -- that's about $25 less per month than when the interest rate was at 6.8 percent a couple months ago.

Thus on a $400,000 loan amount, your payment would now be $100 less per month -- that's a savings of $1,200 per year (more than $6,000 over the next five years) if, and this is the big IF, you get off the fence, lock in your loan and make an offer on that house you've been waiting on.

Watching the interest rates as well as housing prices in your market is the 20/20 Vision of the real estate market. Look to the future. Buy when prices are stable with a low interest rate and then hold on for the ride. According to some forecasters, this month may be the month buyers should get off the dime.

The Financial Forecast Center, a market research group in Houston that monitors and forecasts indexes, interest rates and various other market data, predicts the average national interest rate will climb beyond the highest rate this year to 6.97 percent by January 2007.

If that's the case, that money mentioned above will then cost a buyer $663.29 per month for every $100,000 borrowed. For a $400,000 mortgage, that would then be over $1,800 per year more in monthly payments for the same amount of money (assuming your favorite house is still available and that the price hasn't gone up again).

If you're waiting for prices to hit bottom, it could happen while you wait or you could create your own "bottom" price by making an offer now before interest rates start their upward climb once again. Get the house you want for the price you want at today's interest rate.

Published: September 29, 2006