How’s the Market? Depends – are you Buying, Selling or Investing?

How’s the Market? Depends – are you Buying, Selling or Investing? by Realestateology.org I regularly get asked, "How's the market?" From a Realtor's point of view, it's ALWAYS a good market! It just depends on what YOU want to do – buy, sell or invest? In today's market, it's actually good for all three classes of clients. Sellers are benefiting from increased home prices; buyers are enjoying some of the lowest interest rates on record and a strong housing inventory; and for investors, if you're getting a mortgage, interest rates are low enough that the payments can be covered by your rental income in most cases. Let me break it down: FOR BUYERS Currently, the Northern Virginia market is at about a 3 months' supply. Traditionally, three months constitutes a "normal" market. Normal is good for buyers because it allows them an ample amount of inventory to look over and then the ability to negotiate on price and terms. For the past several years, buyers in the D.C. metro market have been battling each other with escalation clauses and giving up home inspections to win contracts. Now, there is calm in the market which allows buyers to get a more level playing field. Meanwhile, interest rates are under 4% again! FOR SELLERS Prices have continued their appreciation this year in most zip codes. In October, median home prices increased beyond last year's prices in Fairfax County by 2.3% (+$10,000). The median price for October stood at $450,000 (for all property types). In Arlington, the median price increased 1.6% to $536,000. In Washington D.C., median sales prices moved up 9.9% to $500,000. FOR INVESTORS It's all about cash flow for investors. And in today's market with the low interest rates, investors are able to purchase a condo, and including condo fee and taxes, still walk away with a cash flow (disclaimer: it has to be the right price and the right condo fee – call to start your search). If you're able to strike out the high condo fees, the return on investment is even more attractive. An interesting factor that plays in the D.C. area market is politics and mid-term elections, which have historically placed a temporary damper on the market. This year was no exception. In the two weeks running up to the election pending sales dropped 22% compared to the same two week period last year (a non-election year). In the third week, once all the votes were counted, contract writing increased 6.3% over the same period of time last year. (Source: data from MRIS.com). The market is in good shape for nearly every type of buyer and seller. Until next time… I'm never too busy for YOUR referrals! Until next time… Anthony http://www.AnthonyCarr.net Thanks for flying with WordPress.com

Local Outlook is All that Matters: Inventory Down, Prices Up

As I’ve been saying for months – the Northern Virginia market is totally in a seller’s market. The only price range not fully recovered is the over $1 million price range. Every other price range from the $100,000 condo to the $700,000 single family is selling like the proverbial hot cake. Fresh off the griddle, and ready for the butter and syrup. And therein lies the problem – or should I say, opportunity.

When it comes to housing data, sales prices, inventory levels, pending sales, etc., it doesn’t matter what’s happening across the country when you’re looking for a house in your locality. All that matters is what’s happening in the market where you want to sell or buy. It doesn’t matter that foreclosures are slated to increase nationwide when they are selling like hotcakes in Fairfax, VA.

The challenge for buyers in Northern Virginia is they have little inventory from which to shop. As a result - the bonus for sellers is that prices are on the rise. Not year over year, mind you, but month to month, they are definitely on an upward ascension.

Since January 2009, the overall average sold price has increased 15%. The average price in January was $376,669. In May the average price tapped at $433,257. (Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.) Is this a trend? Well, consider this: the last time we had a 4-month, month-over-month increase in sales prices was in 2006. (At that time, by the way, the average price hit $553,618).

Why is this happening?
* Foreclosures rates are dropping in Virginia (Source: George Mason University, Center for Regional Analysis)
* The inventory is beginning to include private-seller owned properties (instead of banks), stopping the price drops and pushing them forward and upward.
* Buyers are taking advantage of the affordable housing prices, the historic interest rates and the First-Time Buyers Tax Credit (up to $8,000) before it expires November 30, 2009. (But there’s talk on Capitol Hill to extend the sunset period.)

So what? What does this mean to you? Buyers get in line. You will be competing for well-priced homes now. We have multiple offers in all price ranges. (The highest I’ve heard told of so far is 23 offers in a weekend).

Sellers, get ready to sell quickly if you are priced competitively and start using home of choice clauses and ready to move into your new home sooner. (The higher up you move in price, the more inventory that’s available). You have the opportunity to move up into your bigger home for a smaller price for the home and a smaller interest rate for the loan.

HELP! WE NEED LISTINGS!

This post is going to be very local in nature - Northern Virginia readers -- we need houses to sell! The market has turned on a dime and sellers are now starting to get their asking price, (or 10s of thousands more -- see Steve's comment on last posting); entertain multiple offers and move up to their next house with very cheap loans.

Are you ready to sell? Who do you know that's ready to sell? Please respond asap so we can catch this upsurge for you, get your home sold and move up to that next great home that you can buy with interest rates that even you grandparents haven't seen! (Lingering today under 5%).

The whole Northern Virginia market is down to a 2.0 months' supply -- that's deep in seller market territory. For price ranges under $500,000 it's even less than 2 months!

Call me today, please! (703) 819-9800. I need the lead!

Home Sellers Market Returns in D.C.

If you’ve been waiting for the Seller’s Market to return – wait no longer! In the first quarter of this year, several towns and counties in Northern Virginia have entered the Seller’s Market territory with less than a 3-month supply of homes available to home shoppers.



Buyers have been leaping off the sidelines for months to snatch up houses that have had a 5-year backup in pricing. For instance, this activity has reduced the standing inventory in Fairfax County down from a 6.54-month supply in March 2008 to a 2.94-month supply today. Here’s how the regional absorption rates look:


Northern Virginia: 3.14 months
Arlington County: 4.33 months
Loudoun County: 3.31 months
Alexandria City: 3.18 months
Fairfax County: 2.94 months
Prince William Co.: 2.03 months

Prices are starting to move up, however. Homes in the lower end are beginning to sell at or above the asking price. Meanwhile, average sales prices are selling at 96% of asking prices. As the market tightens, those price increases will start creeping up higher end homes as well.

So what? What does that mean to you? If you or anyone in your family is a first time buyer – get off the fence! The federal government is offering an $8,000 tax credit (with no pay back required!). Prices are still very affordable. And there is also $0 down payment financing available for first-time buyers as well – coupled with the $8,000 tax credit. The credit is available on homes settled by December 1, 2009.

If you’re a move-up buyer - now may be the time to make that move up before prices start escalating out of control. If you bought before 2003, you most likely have the equity necessary to make that move up while the time is right – prices are lower than in 6 years; interest rates are lingering in the 5% range (even in the 4%'s with points!); and there’s inventory still available.

Northern Virginia Real Estate Market As of March 16, 2009

Today, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors sold market is up 10.26% year-to-date.

Today, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors pending sales market is up 21.09% year-to-date.

Today, the Fairfax County sold market is up 40% year-to-date.

Today, the Fairfax County pending sales market is up 30.96% year-to-date.

AGENTS - have you told anyone?

BUYERS - have you gotten off the fence?

SELLERS - are you ready to move up before prices do?

Market is Up - Inventory WAY Down - Prices Holding Steady - Rates Down

2008 was the Year of Recovery in Northern Virginia and it will continue in 2009, but this time, with a vengeance! Northern Virginia continues to outperform the region, the state and the nation. Buyers face low inventory, competing with multiple buyers and even paying at or higher than asking price. If the market is divided by price ranges, there’s the Hot Market and the Not Market, thus, property condition is as much a factor as price.

Properties priced under $400,000 are snapped up by first time buyers, move-up sellers, and investors. Between $400,000 and $600,000, the houses are still selling that are priced right and in good condition – usually to first time buyers with plenty of cash and some move-up sellers. Above that range and it’s a tougher market. Many homes are priced right, but there are just no takers. The question of “how low can you go?” keeps being asked of sellers.

Inventory in Northern Virginia (from the border of Washington, DC, to western Fairfax County) is down 26% over the same period last year. Combine that with Pending Sales up 27% and you have buyers battling each other for the well-priced houses in good shape. Enter the all-powerful Interest Rate to home prices that have dropped over the last three months and you have a perfect storm for the advent of a Sellers Market.

Power of Interest Rates
Many times, consumers miss the importance of the interest rate. As of this writing – you can buy a home (or refinance) for 4.875%. These are rates that our grandparents haven’t even seen! What this means is thousands of dollars of savings per year on the mortgage today, compared to just a few months ago. When rates were around 7% mid-year in 2008, a mortgage of $350,000 would have run $2328. Now, it would be $1,852. This gives a buyer two choices – buy the same house for a smaller payment or move up the price range by almost $100,000. Fixed rates are tracking even LOWER than adjustable rate mortgages.

So what? Inventory is slipping – we need more houses on the market to meet today’s demand. Buyers are competing again for houses that look good and priced right. Consider two choices – 1) make the move up (or down) now, while prices are stable and interest rates are low; 2) invest at a time when the rent will cover the monthly payment.
While the local papers and television stations report on a dropping market nationwide, it’s not the case for the real estate market surrounding the White House. The market continues to respond to the job growth adjacent to the nation’s capital (+28,000 new jobs in the DC area in 2008 over 2007).

What constitutes the "bottom of the market"?

I get this question all the time: have we hit the bottom yet? Market by market, that's what's happening across the country. I've been tracking "hot" markets for RealtyTimes.com (http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/manthonycarr.htm) for the last year and I'm seeing very healthy markets across the country in state after state.

The strongest market in the country is nearly any county in Texas. As far as comeback markets, where ever the foreclosures hit the hardest is where you'll see the biggest come back. Prince William County, Virginia (outside Washington, D.C.), many markets in the state of Florida, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, all are in the middle of a recovery.

Now, recovery doesn't immediately mean increasing prices. So when I refer to a "recovering" market, I'm looking more at pending sales; list to sold price; the level and direction of seller subsidies; and sustainability of the market, such as job growth and the housing inventory.

When inventory begins to drop, with pending sales moving upward - that's the beginning stages of a recovering market. That's what's happening all over Northern Virginia, for instance, in the shadow of the White House. In Fairfax County over the last month, pending sales have jumped above last December's levels by more than 50%; sales are up in the 30% range and inventory has dropped by about 35%. This has been happening for most of the year (2008).

Does the mainline media pick up on it? Of course, not, because they think a recovering market means one thing -- prices. Unfortunately, by the time you put in a contract on a home when prices are moving up - your chance for a great deal have already disappeared. Most likely, you'll pay at or above asking price and must bring your own money to the table without the benefit of seller closing costs to help you keep your own cash for redecorating, fix ups, etc.

I recently competed on a foreclosure property in Springfield, Virginia against four other investors. My buyer won, only because we came in closer to asking price more than anyone else and asked for no closing costs at all. We got a good deal, as the houses are selling for more than $100,000 more than what we pulled in on the property -- of course, it needs fixing up.

So as you look around for that "great deal," look at the underlying numbers that reveal the bottom of the market - not the sales price which tells you nothing more than the fact that the bottom's already hit.

That Bounce Sound Was the Bottom of the Market

I met up with a potential buyer last night at a well-priced listing that is seller owned and completely fixed up inside. She was worried the price was too high, we hadn’t hit bottom yet, things could get worse, etc., etc.

She was not unlike many buyers out there in markets across the country that have already started to show signs of recovery. In Northern Virginia – the bottom was hit months ago. It’s a challenge of Myth vs. Reality.

(See this piece from Mortgage News Daily on foreclosures dropping: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12112008_realtytrac_foreclosures.asp)

For instance, in Fairfax County (just a few miles from Washington, D.C.), the inventory is down 23% while pending sales are up a whopping 60% over the last 30 days. In addition, average prices have leveled off for months now at pre-2004 levels and starting to rebound.

Buyers are now competing on foreclosures with multiple offers and escalating their offers over list price.

Prices are still thousands higher than they were in 2002 and previous. The good news for homeowners who want to move up is that if they purchased before 2002, more than likely, they can sell for a profit and move up for a lot less than they could have just a couple years ago.

The concept that “My house has lost money” is only important when you’re selling. What the consumer should look at is the purchase price vs. the sales price – not the height of the market value vs. today’s value. If you bought for $275,000 and sell at $375,000 – there’s $100,000 in profit – regardless of the fact that your house swelled in value to $450,000 three years ago. Such a seller has NOT lost $75,000, instead, he’s profited $100,000. In addition, he’ll be moving into a good deal in today’s housing and financing market.

D.C. Area Housing Market Booming In Face of Struggling Markets Nationwide

What makes the Washington, D.C. market different than the rest of the country? The job market within the market. While other cities brag about being the headquarters of Fortune 500 companies, we have something none of them will ever have – the Capital City of the United States. I like the way one colleague puts it when explaining to agents from other states: “When you can put the Pentagon, Congress and the White House in your backyard, then you’ll have a housing market like ours.”

It’s been an interesting week on Wall Street and on Pennsylvania Avenue, leaving Main Street wondering what will happen with the housing market. When you look at our numbers around the Washington Monument, and see that the job growth here has moved upward and heating up even more, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist (or political scientist) to see that the inventory is dropping, prices are starting to level and move upward, and buyers are writing contracts at a triple digit rate more than last year.

If you’re looking to move up, this is the year to take advantage of level prices so you can move up without busting your personal budget. In addition, with FHA financing requiring a minimal down payment, first-time buyers are creating a feeding frenzy in the entry-level market in all property types. We’re seeing more parents help their kids buy a house now before they are priced out of the market. Renters are getting out of supporting the landlord and beginning to build their own equity and personal wealth.

So what? What does this mean to you? Real estate is local. Despite job challenges and foreclosures across the country, homebuyers and sellers must make a decision based on the local scene. The number of foreclosures in the area is declining month after month AND they are drawing multiple offers. Traditional sales of homes priced right and in good condition still make up the majority of the market. Is now the time for you to sell or buy? Waiting too long may cause you to say in the future: “You know, I could have …”

Donald Trump: “This is the time to start looking to buy, you’ll get a great deal.”

Donald Trump, internationally-acclaimed realty guru and multi-billionaire, said on Good Morning America radio August 13, “This is the time to go out and start looking and start buying. Over the course of the next year if you don’t do it you’re going to be very disappointed in the years to come. Now is the best time in years to purchase real estate…especially in the next 12 months to get the best deal.” – Good Morning America, interview with ABC’s Good Morning America, August 12, 2008 (For the whole interview, view online at http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5576708.)

We are seeing the rebound in full force in Northern Virginia and surrounding Capital area. Compared to August a year ago, pending sales are up 39% in Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax County); and 52% in Fairfax County alone. In Prince William County pendings are up an astounding 155% (in Manassas, they are up more than 200%). Why?? The prices have hit the psychological barrier where buyers believe they aren’t going to drop any more. In addition, pent up demand over the last three years has built up to an overflow level.

Multiple offers are back and houses are selling close to or at asking price. A Weichert associate recently had 40 contracts on a property in Manassas – multiple offers are not unusual once again.

So what? If you’re looking to move up, purchase an investment property or help your children buy a home – now is the time. Home prices have leveled and are rising in some areas. Investment properties are once again producing positive monthly cash flow and young buyers can now purchase a house for less than what they would pay in rent.